ATP tennis predict — Benjamin O'Connell vs Blake Ellis

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 1. round 06:40

Predicted probability

Benjamin O'Connell

Australia

23.07%

Blake Ellis

Australia

76.93%

Average Odds

3.53 / 1.25

Market probability

26.15% / 73.85%

Why This Prediction?

Blake Ellis is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (67 vs 2), more career match wins (69 vs 2) and a stronger serve (67.3% vs 59.9% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1559.4 Elo 1501.0

1611.2 Elo (surface) 1523.1

2 Wins (Challenger) 69

2 Wins (surface) 67

2 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.134 Dominance ratio 1.091

984 Rank 477

27.4 Age 27.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Benjamin O'Connell

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

4 matches with market odds since 2026-09-06.

Blake Ellis

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin O'Connell Blake Ellis

1st Serve In %

—

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

—

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

—

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

—

28.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

—

46.2%

Aces per Service Game

—

0.76

Double Faults per Service Game

—

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.0%

57.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.6%

78.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

53.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

36.5%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.6%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.59

0.94

Double Faults per Service Game

0.47

0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin O'Connell Blake Ellis

Break Points Saved %

—

63.4%

Break Points Converted %

—

42.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

67.4%

70.8%

Break Points Converted %

46.3%

31.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Benjamin O'Connell 0 – 0 Blake Ellis

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-08

1. round

Blake Ellis #477

Benjamin O'Connell #984

7-6 6-3

9 Aces 10

5 Double Faults 4

86 Service Points 68

44 First Serve In 37

30 First Serve Won 31

22 Second Serve Won 18

3 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.5

Benjamin O'Connell vs Blake Ellis — Prediction