ATP tennis predict — Benjamin Bonzi vs Luca Van Assche

Challenger Hard Quebec City challenger · QF 17:00

Predicted probability

Benjamin Bonzi

France

45.04%

Luca Van Assche

France

54.96%

Average Odds

2.02 / 1.73

Market probability

46.13% / 53.87%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1781.8 Elo 1770.5

1551.8 Elo (surface) 1599.8

199 Wins (Challenger) 136

141 Wins (surface) 66

11 Last 15 form 11

3 Head-to-head wins 2

0.948 Dominance ratio 0.786

100 Rank 54

30.2 Age 22.3

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Benjamin Bonzi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin Bonzi Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

57.9%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

70.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

52.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.9%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

51.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.39

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.9%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin Bonzi Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Benjamin Bonzi 3 – 2 Luca Van Assche

Hard Quebec City challenger · 2026-08-21

QF

Luca Van Assche #54

Benjamin Bonzi #100

7-6 7-5

3 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 8

74 Service Points 74

42 First Serve In 45

29 First Serve Won 30

11 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.7 Average Odds 2.0

Hard Marseille · 2025-02-10

R32

Luca Van Assche #164

Benjamin Bonzi #64

3-6 6-3 7-6(7)

10 Aces 9

6 Double Faults 4

100 Service Points 86

65 First Serve In 53

51 First Serve Won 43

14 Second Serve Won 14

5 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Roanne CH · 2024-10-07

SF

Benjamin Bonzi #176

Luca Van Assche #121

6-4 6-1

1 Aces 4

0 Double Faults 5

54 Service Points 46

33 First Serve In 31

25 First Serve Won 20

12 Second Serve Won 2

0 Break Points Saved 1

1 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cary CH · 2024-08-12

R32

Luca Van Assche #111

Benjamin Bonzi #128

0-6 7-5 6-4

5 Aces 11

3 Double Faults 10

83 Service Points 84

44 First Serve In 38

29 First Serve Won 29

19 Second Serve Won 22

4 Break Points Saved 3

9 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Marseille · 2023-02-20

R32

Benjamin Bonzi #60

Luca Van Assche #146

7-5 7-5

11 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 0

65 Service Points 67

44 First Serve In 36

36 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 6

4 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Cassis CH · 2021-09-06

QF

Benjamin Bonzi #94

Luca Van Assche #1185

6-3 3-6 6-2

11 Aces 9

2 Double Faults 6

79 Service Points 83

49 First Serve In 46

38 First Serve Won 32

15 Second Serve Won 16

5 Break Points Saved 3

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Benjamin Bonzi vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Benjamin Bonzi — Last 10

Luca Van Assche — Last 10