ATP tennis predict — Benjamin Bonzi vs August Holmgren

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Benjamin Bonzi

France

74.25%

August Holmgren

Denmark

25.75%

Average Odds

1.21 / 3.80

Market probability

75.85% / 24.15%

Why This Prediction?

Benjamin Bonzi is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1914 vs 1651), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1865 vs 1622) and a stronger return game (35.5% vs 28.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1913.7 Elo 1651.4

1864.8 Elo (surface) 1622.4

199 Wins (Challenger) 92

141 Wins (surface) 76

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.964 Dominance ratio 1.244

90 Rank 242

30.3 Age 28.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Benjamin Bonzi

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin Bonzi August Holmgren

1st Serve In %

57.9%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.0%

75.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.9%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.9%

21.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.9%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.9%

59.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

74.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.6%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

31.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.1%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Benjamin Bonzi August Holmgren

Break Points Saved %

55.4%

62.2%

Break Points Converted %

38.8%

22.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

63.3%

75.5%

Break Points Converted %

37.5%

35.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Benjamin Bonzi and August Holmgren have never played each other.

Benjamin Bonzi vs August Holmgren — Prediction