ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert

ATP Hard Washington · R16

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

60.89%

Ugo Humbert

France

39.11%

Average Odds

1.44 / 2.77

Market probability

65.80% / 34.20%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1890 vs 1868), a stronger serve (71.0% vs 67.1% of service points won) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1890.1 Elo 1867.5

1789.4 Elo (surface) 1798.7

138 Wins 212

94 Wins (surface) 150

9 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.002 Dominance ratio 1.169

8 Rank 29

23.8 Age 28.1

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Ugo Humbert

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–5L · 37.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Ugo Humbert

1st Serve In %

66.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

54.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

29.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

52.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

56.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

73.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

37.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

55.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.41

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Ugo Humbert

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

71.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 1 – 0 Ugo Humbert

Hard Washington · 2026-07-31

R16

Ben Shelton #8

Ugo Humbert #29

6-7 6-3 6-4

7 Aces 8

5 Double Faults 4

95 Service Points 98

55 First Serve In 61

44 First Serve Won 48

18 Second Serve Won 21

5 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 6

25 Winners 19

55 Unforced Errors 34

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Hard Australian Open · 2026-01-19

R128

Ben Shelton #7

Ugo Humbert #33

6-3 7-6(2) 7-6(5)

15 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 6

103 Service Points 107

72 First Serve In 64

56 First Serve Won 47

20 Second Serve Won 21

1 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton vs Ugo Humbert — Prediction