ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 01:15

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

66.05%

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Greece

33.95%

Average Odds

1.34 / 3.30

Market probability

71.12% / 28.88%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1956 vs 1864), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1882 vs 1841) and better recent form (14 wins in his last 15 matches vs 11).

Player Comparison

1955.6 Elo 1864.4

1881.8 Elo (surface) 1840.7

148 Wins 428

104 Wins (surface) 256

11 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.869 Dominance ratio 0.988

9 Rank 53

23.9 Age 28.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Stefanos Tsitsipas

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Stefanos Tsitsipas

1st Serve In %

66.7%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

46.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

25.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

80.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

62.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

29.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.81

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Stefanos Tsitsipas

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

59.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

50.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

75.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

36.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 0 – 1 Stefanos Tsitsipas

Hard US Open · 2026-09-07

R16

Ben Shelton #9

Stefanos Tsitsipas #53

6-2 6-3 6-4

12 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 3

71 Service Points 71

51 First Serve In 37

43 First Serve Won 24

14 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 6

32 Winners 16

17 Unforced Errors 23

1.3 Average Odds 3.3

Hard Cincinnati Masters · 2023-08-14

R32

Stefanos Tsitsipas #4

Ben Shelton #40

7-6(3) 7-6(2)

6 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 6

70 Service Points 74

40 First Serve In 43

37 First Serve Won 36

18 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 0

0 Break Points Faced 0

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton vs Stefanos Tsitsipas — Prediction