ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Learner Tien

ATP Hard Montreal · SF 02:40

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

59.64%

Learner Tien

USA

40.36%

Average Odds

1.45 / 2.73

Market probability

65.31% / 34.69%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1842 vs 1762), better recent form (12 wins in his last 15 matches vs 11) and a stronger serve (64.1% vs 58.1% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1925.1 Elo 1887.3

1842.0 Elo (surface) 1761.5

143 Wins 76

99 Wins (surface) 58

12 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 2

0.797 Dominance ratio 0.848

10 Rank 19

23.8 Age 20.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Learner Tien

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–3L · 70.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Learner Tien

1st Serve In %

66.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

43.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

68.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

27.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Learner Tien

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

55.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

40.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

59.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

40.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 0 – 2 Learner Tien

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-13

SF

Ben Shelton #10

Learner Tien #19

6-2 6-3

1 Aces 5

5 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 58

29 First Serve In 43

16 First Serve Won 35

11 Second Serve Won 6

2 Break Points Saved 4

5 Break Points Faced 4

13 Winners 22

30 Unforced Errors 23

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2026-03-04

R32

Learner Tien #27

Ben Shelton #8

7-6(3) 4-6 6-3

15 Aces 8

10 Double Faults 3

106 Service Points 100

71 First Serve In 63

58 First Serve Won 45

18 Second Serve Won 23

5 Break Points Saved 7

6 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Mallorca · 2025-06-22

R16

Learner Tien #67

Ben Shelton #10

6-4 7-6(2)

7 Aces 7

7 Double Faults 6

70 Service Points 78

38 First Serve In 45

29 First Serve Won 29

17 Second Serve Won 14

4 Break Points Saved 4

6 Break Points Faced 7