ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Joao Fonseca

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 00:10

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

58.42%

Joao Fonseca

Brazil

41.58%

Average Odds

1.72 / 2.11

Market probability

55.09% / 44.91%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1903 vs 1836), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1817 vs 1815) and more wins on hard courts (97 vs 34).

Player Comparison

1903.0 Elo 1836.3

1816.7 Elo (surface) 1814.8

141 Wins 63

97 Wins (surface) 34

11 Last 15 form 10

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 0.929

10 Rank 27

23.8 Age 20.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Joao Fonseca

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Joao Fonseca

1st Serve In %

66.7%

66.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

67.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

51.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.43

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

66.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

56.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

40.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

51.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.13

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Joao Fonseca

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

64.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

59.4%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

45.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 1 – 0 Joao Fonseca

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-10

R16

Ben Shelton #10

Joao Fonseca #27

6-3 7-6

0 Aces 5

3 Double Faults 1

83 Service Points 63

53 First Serve In 45

31 First Serve Won 35

16 Second Serve Won 12

3 Break Points Saved 3

6 Break Points Faced 5

15 Winners 26

32 Unforced Errors 26

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Clay Munich · 2026-04-13

QF

Ben Shelton #6

Joao Fonseca #35

6-3 3-6 6-3

7 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 0

70 Service Points 76

45 First Serve In 50

38 First Serve Won 35

17 Second Serve Won 17

0 Break Points Saved 5

1 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton vs Joao Fonseca — Prediction