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Ben Shelton vs Jakub Mensik — Prediction

ATP Hard Montreal · QF 00:10

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

58.33%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

41.67%

Average Odds

1.68  /  2.19

Market probability

56.59%  /  43.41%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1831 vs 1733), a higher Elo rating (1913 vs 1881) and a stronger return game (39.5% vs 37.7% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1913.4 Elo 1881.1
1831.3 Elo (surface) 1732.9
142 Wins 103
98 Wins (surface) 76
11 Last 15 form 11
1 Head-to-head wins 2
0.888 Dominance ratio 0.983
10 Rank 17
23.8 Age 20.9
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–4L · 63.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

66.7%
61.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%
72.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%
52.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%
21.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%
55.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.46
0.51

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%
57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%
74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%
54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%
32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%
48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.64
0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
60.9%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%
44.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%
66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 1 – 2 Jakub Mensik

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-12

QF

Ben Shelton #10

Jakub Mensik #17

6-3 6-1
1 Aces 1
3 Double Faults 1
53 Service Points 44
33 First Serve In 28
21 First Serve Won 25
5 Second Serve Won 8
2 Break Points Saved 0
6 Break Points Faced 0
11 Winners 18
18 Unforced Errors 3
1.7 Average Odds 2.2
Clay Madrid Masters · 2025-04-23

R32

Jakub Mensik #23

Ben Shelton #13

6-1 6-4
5 Aces 5
2 Double Faults 1
43 Service Points 59
28 First Serve In 28
26 First Serve Won 17
6 Second Serve Won 15
0 Break Points Saved 5
0 Break Points Faced 9
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Auckland · 2025-01-06

R16

Jakub Mensik #49

Ben Shelton #21

7-6(2) 4-6 7-5
10 Aces 7
7 Double Faults 2
119 Service Points 127
71 First Serve In 84
57 First Serve Won 54
25 Second Serve Won 27
5 Break Points Saved 11
6 Break Points Faced 12
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2024-03-04

R64

Ben Shelton #16

Jakub Mensik #81

4-6 6-3 6-4
8 Aces 7
5 Double Faults 4
83 Service Points 91
56 First Serve In 50
46 First Serve Won 37
13 Second Serve Won 19
3 Break Points Saved 3
5 Break Points Faced 6
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W

Jakub Mensik — Last 10

L W W L W W L W W W