ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 2. round 19:00

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

64.50%

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

35.50%

Average Odds

1.41 / 2.89

Market probability

67.21% / 32.79%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1938 vs 1858), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1856 vs 1827) and the advantage of playing in his home country.

Player Comparison

1937.6 Elo 1858.2

1856.0 Elo (surface) 1827.1

146 Wins 262

102 Wins (surface) 174

11 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.834 Dominance ratio 0.973

9 Rank 47

23.9 Age 29.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Hubert Hurkacz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Hubert Hurkacz

1st Serve In %

66.7%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

27.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

45.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.80

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

60.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

69.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

32.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Hubert Hurkacz

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

60.6%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

35.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

60.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 0 – 0 Hubert Hurkacz

Hard US Open · 2026-09-02

2. round

Ben Shelton #9

Hubert Hurkacz #47

6-3 5-7 7-6 7-5

6 Aces 14

3 Double Faults 7

138 Service Points 139

100 First Serve In 81

73 First Serve Won 61

25 Second Serve Won 32

5 Break Points Saved 8

7 Break Points Faced 11

44 Winners 47

35 Unforced Errors 43

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction