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Ben Shelton vs Frances Tiafoe — Prediction

Grand Slam Hard US Open · SF 01:45

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

75.60%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

24.40%

Average Odds

1.34  /  3.28

Market probability

71.00%  /  29.00%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2170 vs 2107), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2139 vs 2043) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 60.6% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2169.6 Elo 2107.1
2139.0 Elo (surface) 2042.9
150 Wins 301
106 Wins (surface) 209
13 Last 15 form 11
3 Head-to-head wins 1
0.939 Dominance ratio 0.885
9 Rank 12
23.9 Age 28.6
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

66.7%
52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%
72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%
47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%
25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%
48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.46
0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%
62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%
73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%
51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%
31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%
47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.64
0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
57.1%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%
40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%
70.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 3 – 1 Frances Tiafoe

Hard US Open · 2026-09-12

SF

Ben Shelton #9

Frances Tiafoe #12

4-6 6-3 6-3 7-5
3 Aces 20
2 Double Faults 3
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
54 First Serve Won 66
20 Second Serve Won 15
6 Break Points Saved 5
11 Break Points Faced 7
27 Winners 47
28 Unforced Errors 31
1.3 Average Odds 3.3
Hard Washington · 2025-07-21

QF

Ben Shelton #8

Frances Tiafoe #11

7-6(2) 6-4
9 Aces 8
1 Double Faults 3
57 Service Points 89
31 First Serve In 48
28 First Serve Won 36
17 Second Serve Won 19
0 Break Points Saved 8
1 Break Points Faced 10
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2024-08-26

R32

Frances Tiafoe #20

Ben Shelton #13

4-6 7-5 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3
5 Aces 23
5 Double Faults 4
159 Service Points 172
91 First Serve In 114
69 First Serve Won 81
41 Second Serve Won 28
4 Break Points Saved 16
7 Break Points Faced 21
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Clay Houston · 2024-04-01

F

Ben Shelton #16

Frances Tiafoe #21

7-5 4-6 6-3
11 Aces 3
8 Double Faults 3
88 Service Points 87
54 First Serve In 55
45 First Serve Won 38
18 Second Serve Won 20
1 Break Points Saved 1
2 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Us Open · 2023-08-28

QF

Ben Shelton #47

Frances Tiafoe #10

6-2 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2
14 Aces 7
11 Double Faults 4
108 Service Points 122
64 First Serve In 68
49 First Serve Won 43
22 Second Serve Won 27
2 Break Points Saved 8
6 Break Points Faced 15
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W

Frances Tiafoe — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W