ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov

Grand Slam Hard US Open · 3. round 04:45

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

73.57%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

26.43%

Average Odds

1.23 / 4.17

Market probability

77.22% / 22.78%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1948 vs 1762), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1871 vs 1762) and better recent form (14 wins in his last 15 matches vs 11).

Player Comparison

1948.5 Elo 1762.2

1870.7 Elo (surface) 1761.7

147 Wins 262

103 Wins (surface) 198

11 Last 15 form 8

4 Head-to-head wins 0

0.857 Dominance ratio 1.060

9 Rank 48

23.9 Age 27.4

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

66.7%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 4 – 0 Denis Shapovalov

Hard US Open · 2026-09-05

3. round

Ben Shelton #9

Denis Shapovalov #48

7-6 6-7 6-3 6-4

14 Aces 8

7 Double Faults 7

140 Service Points 130

98 First Serve In 74

72 First Serve Won 57

22 Second Serve Won 25

4 Break Points Saved 5

8 Break Points Faced 11

47 Winners 28

54 Unforced Errors 36

1.2 Average Odds 4.2

Hard Dallas · 2026-02-09

SF

Ben Shelton #9

Denis Shapovalov #40

4-6 6-4 7-6(4)

8 Aces 4

4 Double Faults 2

113 Service Points 109

81 First Serve In 68

59 First Serve Won 50

18 Second Serve Won 25

10 Break Points Saved 5

11 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2024-10-02

R64

Ben Shelton #16

Denis Shapovalov #102

6-3 7-5

11 Aces 2

1 Double Faults 5

55 Service Points 57

42 First Serve In 40

32 First Serve Won 28

12 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 3

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Washington · 2024-07-29

QF

Ben Shelton #14

Denis Shapovalov #139

7-6(5) 6-6 DEF

3 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 7

90 Service Points 82

66 First Serve In 59

47 First Serve Won 45

14 Second Serve Won 10

5 Break Points Saved 5

6 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Grass Wimbledon · 2024-07-01

R32

Ben Shelton #14

Denis Shapovalov #121

6-7(4) 6-2 6-4 4-6 6-2

7 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 13

137 Service Points 154

90 First Serve In 94

73 First Serve Won 69

29 Second Serve Won 31

3 Break Points Saved 11

4 Break Points Faced 16

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton — Last 10

Denis Shapovalov — Last 10