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Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz — Prediction

Grand Slam Hard US Open · QF 05:05

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

37.71%

Carlos Alcaraz

Spain

62.29%

Average Odds

3.91  /  1.27

Market probability

24.52%  /  75.48%

Why This Prediction?

Carlos Alcaraz is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2304 vs 2115), a stronger return game (41.1% vs 32.2% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating (2396 vs 2147).

Player Comparison

2146.9 Elo 2395.9
2115.2 Elo (surface) 2304.2
149 Wins 316
105 Wins (surface) 168
12 Last 15 form 12
0 Head-to-head wins 3
0.939 Dominance ratio 1.041
9 Rank 3
23.9 Age 23.4
left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Carlos Alcaraz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

5 matches with market odds since 2026-08-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Carlos Alcaraz

1st Serve In %

66.7%
61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%
64.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%
47.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%
36.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%
47.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.46
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21
0.33

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%
65.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%
68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%
54.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%
36.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%
54.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.64
0.13

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.23

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Carlos Alcaraz

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
59.5%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%
39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%
51.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%
53.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 0 – 3 Carlos Alcaraz

Hard US Open · 2026-09-09

QF

Ben Shelton #9

Carlos Alcaraz #3

6-7 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6
7 Aces 3
2 Double Faults 7
- Service Points -
- First Serve In -
73 First Serve Won 77
30 Second Serve Won 32
8 Break Points Saved 11
11 Break Points Faced 16
34 Winners 38
35 Unforced Errors 53
3.9 Average Odds 1.3
Clay Roland Garros · 2025-05-26

R16

Carlos Alcaraz #2

Ben Shelton #13

7-6(8) 6-3 4-6 6-4
5 Aces 6
2 Double Faults 3
142 Service Points 129
99 First Serve In 88
67 First Serve Won 61
29 Second Serve Won 24
7 Break Points Saved 4
9 Break Points Faced 7
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Laver Cup · 2024-09-20

RR

Carlos Alcaraz #3

Ben Shelton #17

6-4 6-4
0 Aces 4
0 Double Faults 3
59 Service Points 70
46 First Serve In 50
36 First Serve Won 33
8 Second Serve Won 12
5 Break Points Saved 9
5 Break Points Faced 11
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -
Hard Canada Masters · 2023-08-07

R32

Carlos Alcaraz #1

Ben Shelton #41

6-3 7-6(3)
4 Aces 5
2 Double Faults 4
78 Service Points 62
45 First Serve In 37
32 First Serve Won 26
22 Second Serve Won 15
3 Break Points Saved 2
3 Break Points Faced 3
- Winners -
- Unforced Errors -
- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton — Last 10

L W W W W W W L W W

Carlos Alcaraz — Last 10

L W W W W L W L W W