ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Montreal · F 02:15

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

58.53%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

41.47%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.94

Market probability

67.74% / 32.26%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1937 vs 1855), better recent form (14 wins in his last 15 matches vs 11) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1853 vs 1833).

Player Comparison

1936.6 Elo 1855.1

1853.3 Elo (surface) 1833.4

144 Wins 178

100 Wins (surface) 121

12 Last 15 form 12

5 Head-to-head wins 0

0.745 Dominance ratio 1.118

10 Rank 31

23.8 Age 25.0

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

66.7%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.7%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.0%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

26.1%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.8%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

39.2%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton 5 – 0 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-14

F

Ben Shelton #10

Brandon Nakashima #31

6-3 7-6

7 Aces 8

0 Double Faults 1

54 Service Points 64

37 First Serve In 40

32 First Serve Won 32

13 Second Serve Won 12

0 Break Points Saved 2

0 Break Points Faced 4

22 Winners 19

12 Unforced Errors 21

1.4 Average Odds 2.9

Hard Canada Masters · 2025-07-27

R32

Ben Shelton #7

Brandon Nakashima #32

6-7(8) 6-2 7-6(5)

19 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 1

111 Service Points 104

69 First Serve In 66

56 First Serve Won 49

20 Second Serve Won 21

3 Break Points Saved 5

4 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Indian Wells Masters · 2025-03-05

R16

Ben Shelton #12

Brandon Nakashima #33

7-6(6) 6-1

6 Aces 0

1 Double Faults 1

61 Service Points 62

40 First Serve In 30

29 First Serve Won 18

14 Second Serve Won 17

3 Break Points Saved 2

4 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Ben Shelton #20

Brandon Nakashima #35

7-6(3) 7-5 7-5

12 Aces 9

3 Double Faults 2

113 Service Points 111

67 First Serve In 73

49 First Serve Won 52

30 Second Serve Won 22

2 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Washington · 2024-07-29

R16

Ben Shelton #14

Brandon Nakashima #54

7-6(5) 7-6(4)

14 Aces 5

4 Double Faults 0

90 Service Points 70

62 First Serve In 44

50 First Serve Won 35

14 Second Serve Won 19

4 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Houston · 2024-04-01

QF

Ben Shelton #16

Brandon Nakashima #92

7-5 7-6(9)

6 Aces 8

2 Double Faults 3

94 Service Points 89

70 First Serve In 69

52 First Serve Won 51

15 Second Serve Won 10

7 Break Points Saved 5

7 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Ben Shelton vs Brandon Nakashima — Prediction

Why This Prediction?

Player Comparison

Performance vs. the Odds

Serve & Return

Break Point Performance

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton — Last 10

Brandon Nakashima — Last 10