ATP tennis predict — Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 06:00

Predicted probability

Ben Shelton

USA

77.27%

Arthur Gea

France

22.73%

Average Odds

1.35 / 3.16

Market probability

70.07% / 29.93%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2173 vs 1974), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2137 vs 1989) and better recent form (13 wins in his last 15 matches vs 12).

Player Comparison

2173.4 Elo 1973.9

2137.5 Elo (surface) 1988.5

152 Wins 27

108 Wins (surface) 23

13 Last 15 form 12

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.939 Dominance ratio 0.967

4 Rank 56

24.0 Age 21.8

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Arthur Gea

1st Serve In %

67.4%

51.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.2%

66.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.5%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

28.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

53.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.42

Double Faults per Service Game

0.21

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.7%

59.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.6%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.4%

44.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

33.9%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.2%

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Ben Shelton Arthur Gea

Break Points Saved %

66.2%

50.6%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

74.1%

45.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Ben Shelton and Arthur Gea have never played each other.

Ben Shelton vs Arthur Gea — Prediction