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Beibit Zhukayev vs Yaroslav Demin — Prediction

Challenger Hard Wuning 3 challenger · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Beibit Zhukayev

Kazakhstan

84.71%

Yaroslav Demin

Russia

15.29%

Average Odds

1.60  /  2.20

Market probability

57.89%  /  42.11%

Why This Prediction?

Beibit Zhukayev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1614 vs 1315), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1565 vs 1243) and more career match wins (98 vs 3).

Player Comparison

1613.7 Elo 1314.8
1564.8 Elo (surface) 1243.2
98 Wins (Challenger) 3
83 Wins (surface) 1
8 Last 15 form 3
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.073 Dominance ratio 0.838
495 Rank 645
26.0 Age 21.1
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Beibit Zhukayev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Yaroslav Demin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–2L · 0.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Beibit Zhukayev Yaroslav Demin

1st Serve In %

61.0%
—

1st Serve Points Won %

77.7%
—

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%
—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%
—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%
—

Aces per Service Game

1.41
—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.56
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%
59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%
65.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%
46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%
29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%
53.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.84
0.22

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32
0.46

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Beibit Zhukayev Yaroslav Demin

Break Points Saved %

63.2%
—

Break Points Converted %

40.0%
—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.2%
62.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%
48.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Beibit Zhukayev and Yaroslav Demin have never played each other.

Beibit Zhukayev — Last 10

L W L L W W L W L W

Yaroslav Demin — Last 10

L L L W W L L L L L