ATP tennis predict — Beibit Zhukayev vs Mert Alkaya

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · R16 12:30

Predicted probability

Beibit Zhukayev

Kazakhstan

65.85%

Mert Alkaya

Turkey

34.15%

Average Odds

2.32 / 1.56

Market probability

40.21% / 59.79%

Why This Prediction?

Beibit Zhukayev is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1617 vs 1519), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1639 vs 1529) and a stronger serve (64.8% vs 59.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1617.0 Elo 1519.3

1638.7 Elo (surface) 1528.5

98 Wins (Challenger) 19

83 Wins (surface) 18

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.029 Dominance ratio 0.820

419 Rank 299

25.8 Age 26.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Beibit Zhukayev

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

2 matches with market odds since 2026-08-11.

Mert Alkaya

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–1L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Beibit Zhukayev Mert Alkaya

1st Serve In %

61.0%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

77.7%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

42.4%

52.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

20.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

1.41

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.56

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.4%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.5%

60.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.7%

46.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.4%

25.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.8%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.84

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.32

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Beibit Zhukayev Mert Alkaya

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

40.0%

25.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

72.2%

53.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.3%

44.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Beibit Zhukayev 0 – 0 Mert Alkaya

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-12

R16

Mert Alkaya #299

Beibit Zhukayev #419

6-3 6-4

3 Aces 6

3 Double Faults 1

53 Service Points 65

33 First Serve In 32

21 First Serve Won 22

8 Second Serve Won 20

0 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Beibit Zhukayev vs Mert Alkaya — Prediction