ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Sergey Fomin

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · SF 09:30

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

54.40%

Sergey Fomin

Uzbekistan

45.60%

Average Odds

1.59 / 2.25

Market probability

58.59% / 41.41%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1600.9 Elo 1481.1

1607.5 Elo (surface) 1557.7

84 Wins (Challenger) 56

62 Wins (surface) 30

8 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.102 Dominance ratio 1.335

690 Rank 305

29.4 Age 25.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Sergey Fomin

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–6L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Sergey Fomin

1st Serve In %

57.9%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

50.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

55.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

56.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Sergey Fomin

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

69.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

38.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz 0 – 0 Sergey Fomin

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-15

SF

Aziz Dougaz #690

Sergey Fomin #305

4-6 6-1 7-5

10 Aces 8

4 Double Faults 7

96 Service Points 85

62 First Serve In 48

45 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 20

6 Break Points Saved 3

8 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Aziz Dougaz vs Sergey Fomin — Prediction