ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Mirza Basic

Challenger Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

51.19%

Mirza Basic

Bosnia and Herzeg.

48.81%

Average Odds

1.21 / 3.82

Market probability

75.94% / 24.06%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1564.8 Elo 1553.6

1557.7 Elo (surface) 1586.9

80 Wins (Challenger) 216

58 Wins (surface) 152

7 Last 15 form 8

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.891 Dominance ratio 1.124

690 Rank 712

29.4 Age 35.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Mirza Basic

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-07-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Mirza Basic

1st Serve In %

57.9%

60.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

76.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

50.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

24.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

51.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

64.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

66.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

50.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Mirza Basic

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

63.2%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

42.1%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

52.8%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

41.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz 0 – 0 Mirza Basic

Hard Grodzisk Mazowiecki challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Aziz Dougaz #690

Mirza Basic #712

6-1 6-4

13 Aces 5

1 Double Faults 1

39 Service Points 63

28 First Serve In 45

26 First Serve Won 28

10 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 6

0 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 3.8

Aziz Dougaz vs Mirza Basic — Prediction