ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Hayato Matsuoka

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · F 10:00

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

53.20%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

46.80%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.61

Market probability

41.93% / 58.07%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1610.3 Elo 1631.5

1621.5 Elo (surface) 1644.6

85 Wins (Challenger) 43

63 Wins (surface) 42

9 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.069 Dominance ratio 0.920

690 Rank 309

29.4 Age 21.6

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

57.9%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-16

F

Hayato Matsuoka #314

Aziz Dougaz #629

0-6 6-1 7-6

5 Aces 1

4 Double Faults 4

90 Service Points 84

64 First Serve In 56

43 First Serve Won 43

10 Second Serve Won 10

4 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Aziz Dougaz vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction