ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Federico Cina

ATP Hard Shanghai · qualification - 2. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

40.87%

Federico Cina

Italy

59.13%

Average Odds

2.78 / 1.42

Market probability

33.81% / 66.19%

Why This Prediction?

Federico Cina is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1747 vs 1670), a stronger return game (37.9% vs 33.8% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1718 vs 1673).

Player Comparison

1669.6 Elo 1746.5

1672.7 Elo (surface) 1718.2

18 Wins 16

13 Wins (surface) 9

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.859 Dominance ratio 1.066

430 Rank 147

29.5 Age 19.5

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Federico Cina

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–8L · 52.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

29 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Federico Cina

1st Serve In %

57.6%

56.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

70.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

45.9%

45.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.7%

26.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.2%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

53.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

47.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Federico Cina

Break Points Saved %

53.2%

53.7%

Break Points Converted %

39.7%

33.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

52.2%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz and Federico Cina have never played each other.

Aziz Dougaz vs Federico Cina — Prediction