ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Damir Dzumhur

Challenger Hard Olbia challenger · 1. round 11:00

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

42.97%

Damir Dzumhur

Bosnia and Herzeg.

57.03%

Average Odds

2.14 / 1.63

Market probability

43.24% / 56.76%

Why This Prediction?

Damir Dzumhur is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1766 vs 1659), a stronger return game (42.3% vs 33.8% of return points won) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1688 vs 1659).

Player Comparison

1658.7 Elo 1765.5

1658.8 Elo (surface) 1687.7

85 Wins (Challenger) 240

63 Wins (surface) 72

9 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.078 Dominance ratio 0.951

430 Rank 103

29.6 Age 34.4

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Damir Dzumhur

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

21 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Damir Dzumhur

1st Serve In %

54.9%

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.4%

65.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

48.1%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

24.8%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.0%

48.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.49

0.27

Double Faults per Service Game

0.29

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

59.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

37.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

46.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Damir Dzumhur

Break Points Saved %

58.7%

59.5%

Break Points Converted %

34.5%

50.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

57.4%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

43.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz and Damir Dzumhur have never played each other.

Aziz Dougaz vs Damir Dzumhur — Prediction