ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Andrea Guerrieri

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 3. round 17:00

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

32.36%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

67.64%

Average Odds

1.75 / 1.97

Market probability

52.96% / 47.04%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1703 vs 1632), a higher Elo rating (1703 vs 1633) and a stronger return game (39.2% vs 36.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1632.6 Elo 1703.0

1631.6 Elo (surface) 1703.3

17 Wins 4

12 Wins (surface) 2

6 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.783 Dominance ratio 1.154

520 Rank 187

29.4 Age 27.7

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

57.9%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

54.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

68.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

48.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

29.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.44

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

58.6%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

32.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz 0 – 0 Andrea Guerrieri

Hard US Open · 2026-08-27

qualification - 3. round

Andrea Guerrieri #187

Aziz Dougaz #520

6-2 6-4

6 Aces 3

2 Double Faults 3

70 Service Points 53

40 First Serve In 28

23 First Serve Won 23

14 Second Serve Won 15

6 Break Points Saved 5

9 Break Points Faced 5

16 Winners 17

22 Unforced Errors 12

2.0 Average Odds 1.8

Aziz Dougaz vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction