ATP tennis predict — Aziz Dougaz vs Alec Deckers

Challenger Hard Astana 4 challenger · 1. round 12:50

Predicted probability

Aziz Dougaz

Tunisia

62.76%

Alec Deckers

Netherlands

37.24%

Average Odds

1.26 / 3.69

Market probability

74.55% / 25.45%

Why This Prediction?

Aziz Dougaz is the favorite because he has more wins on hard courts (59 vs 5), a higher Elo rating (1565 vs 1534) and better recent form (4 wins in his last 15 matches vs 0).

Player Comparison

1564.7 Elo 1533.6

1563.3 Elo (surface) 1565.3

81 Wins (Challenger) 9

59 Wins (surface) 5

6 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.101 Dominance ratio 0.748

690 Rank 577

29.4 Age 26.3

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Aziz Dougaz

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Alec Deckers

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-06.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Alec Deckers

1st Serve In %

57.9%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

71.8%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.7%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.5%

21.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.4%

41.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.43

0.85

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

62.7%

58.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.5%

75.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.7%

47.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.6%

24.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.8%

49.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.47

0.79

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Aziz Dougaz Alec Deckers

Break Points Saved %

50.8%

61.5%

Break Points Converted %

46.0%

30.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.6%

68.5%

Break Points Converted %

51.9%

39.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Aziz Dougaz 0 – 0 Alec Deckers

Hard Astana 4 challenger · 2026-08-11

1. round

Aziz Dougaz #690

Alec Deckers #577

6-3 2-6 6-3

10 Aces 8

7 Double Faults 8

78 Service Points 77

39 First Serve In 38

30 First Serve Won 31

21 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 5

3 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

Aziz Dougaz vs Alec Deckers — Prediction