ATP tennis predict — August Holmgren vs Vadym Ursu

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round 13:00

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

77.59%

Vadym Ursu

Ukraine

22.41%

Average Odds

1.19 / 4.12

Market probability

77.59% / 22.41%

Why This Prediction?

August Holmgren is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1596 vs 1425), a higher Elo rating (1564 vs 1392) and a stronger serve (68.5% vs 56.7% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1564.4 Elo 1392.3

1595.7 Elo (surface) 1425.2

92 Wins (Challenger) 43

76 Wins (surface) 36

7 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.156 Dominance ratio 0.890

247 Rank 407

28.4 Age 29.7

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Vadym Ursu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–6L · 14.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

12 matches with market odds since 2026-06-07.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Vadym Ursu

1st Serve In %

64.2%

59.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

59.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

37.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%

23.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

42.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.70

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

61.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

67.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

41.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.39

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Vadym Ursu

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

48.4%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%

16.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.5%

49.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

34.2%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren 0 – 0 Vadym Ursu

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-09-07

1. round

Vadym Ursu #407

August Holmgren #247

6-4 7-5

7 Aces 3

4 Double Faults 3

69 Service Points 68

49 First Serve In 47

32 First Serve Won 31

7 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 2

6 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

4.1 Average Odds 1.2

August Holmgren vs Vadym Ursu — Prediction