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August Holmgren vs Henrique Rocha — Prediction

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · QF 12:00

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

34.26%

Henrique Rocha

Portugal

65.74%

Average Odds

1.83  /  1.24

Market probability

40.39%  /  59.61%

Why This Prediction?

Henrique Rocha is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1788 vs 1676), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1708 vs 1649) and a stronger return game (42.4% vs 38.6% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1675.6 Elo 1787.6
1648.8 Elo (surface) 1707.5
93 Wins (Challenger) 84
77 Wins (surface) 23
7 Last 15 form 10
0 Head-to-head wins 0
1.244 Dominance ratio 1.186
245 Rank 127
28.4 Age 22.5
right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Henrique Rocha

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–1L · 75.0%
Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–4L · 55.6%
Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%
Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%
Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-02.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Henrique Rocha

1st Serve In %

64.2%
61.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%
68.7%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%
53.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%
31.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%
46.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.68
0.33

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26
0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%
67.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%
74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.7%
49.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%
38.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%
53.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44
0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44
0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Henrique Rocha

Break Points Saved %

62.2%
57.4%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%
39.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.5%
59.3%

Break Points Converted %

36.6%
42.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren and Henrique Rocha have never played each other.

August Holmgren — Last 10

W L L L L L W L W W

Henrique Rocha — Last 10

W L W W L W L W W L