ATP tennis predict — August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns

Challenger Hard Winnipeg challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

61.41%

Garrett Johns

USA

38.59%

Average Odds

1.29 / 3.36

Market probability

72.26% / 27.74%

Why This Prediction?

August Holmgren is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1657 vs 1551), a stronger serve (66.0% vs 60.3% of service points won) and a higher Elo rating (1603 vs 1567).

Player Comparison

1603.1 Elo 1567.2

1656.8 Elo (surface) 1550.8

91 Wins (Challenger) 57

75 Wins (surface) 32

8 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

1.060 Dominance ratio 0.942

227 Rank 375

28.2 Age 25.6

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Garrett Johns

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–5L · 44.4%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-01.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Garrett Johns

1st Serve In %

64.2%

49.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

73.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%

23.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.57

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

57.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

67.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

34.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

53.1%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.30

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.19

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Garrett Johns

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%

40.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.5%

62.5%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

45.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren 1 – 0 Garrett Johns

Hard Winnipeg challenger · 2026-07-22

1. round

August Holmgren #227

Garrett Johns #375

6-7 6-2 7-6

8 Aces 4

11 Double Faults 5

115 Service Points 128

57 First Serve In 84

45 First Serve Won 51

31 Second Serve Won 24

4 Break Points Saved 9

6 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Hard Bloomfield Hills CH · 2025-07-21

R32

August Holmgren #146

Garrett Johns #344

6-1 6-4

3 Aces 7

3 Double Faults 1

47 Service Points 54

25 First Serve In 28

23 First Serve Won 24

14 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 5

0 Break Points Faced 8

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

August Holmgren vs Garrett Johns — Prediction