ATP tennis predict — August Holmgren vs Braden Shick

Challenger Hard Vancouver challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

48.31%

Braden Shick

USA

51.69%

Average Odds

1.40 / 2.77

Market probability

66.43% / 33.57%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1601.1 Elo 1668.4

1646.9 Elo (surface) 1706.8

92 Wins (Challenger) 17

76 Wins (surface) 15

8 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.064 Dominance ratio 0.933

227 Rank 234

28.3 Age 22.8

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Braden Shick

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 6W–4L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Braden Shick

1st Serve In %

64.2%

55.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

61.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

42.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%

25.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

45.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.54

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

58.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

64.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

47.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

28.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

41.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Braden Shick

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

62.1%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%

31.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.5%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren 0 – 0 Braden Shick

Hard Vancouver challenger · 2026-07-29

1. round

Braden Shick #234

August Holmgren #227

6-7 6-3 6-3

9 Aces 3

8 Double Faults 7

96 Service Points 92

54 First Serve In 44

39 First Serve Won 35

22 Second Serve Won 32

7 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 1

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.8 Average Odds 1.4

August Holmgren vs Braden Shick — Prediction