ATP tennis predict — August Holmgren vs Andrea Guerrieri

Challenger Hard Porto challenger · R16 15:00

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

41.63%

Andrea Guerrieri

Italy

58.37%

Average Odds

2.23 / 1.60

Market probability

41.78% / 58.22%

Why This Prediction?

Andrea Guerrieri is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1812 vs 1676), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1748 vs 1649) and a stronger return game (42.2% vs 28.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1675.6 Elo 1811.7

1648.8 Elo (surface) 1748.4

93 Wins (Challenger) 57

77 Wins (surface) 17

7 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

1.244 Dominance ratio 0.983

245 Rank 164

28.4 Age 27.8

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Andrea Guerrieri

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–3L · 40.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-22.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Andrea Guerrieri

1st Serve In %

64.2%

58.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

70.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

49.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%

32.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

59.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

60.5%

52.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.1%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.7%

47.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.9%

26.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

46.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.44

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.51

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Andrea Guerrieri

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%

35.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.5%

55.8%

Break Points Converted %

36.6%

29.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren 0 – 1 Andrea Guerrieri

Hard US Open · 2026-08-24

qualification - 1. round

Andrea Guerrieri #187

August Holmgren #244

6-3 6-7 6-2

2 Aces 11

4 Double Faults 6

90 Service Points 94

49 First Serve In 58

35 First Serve Won 41

25 Second Serve Won 13

1 Break Points Saved 3

3 Break Points Faced 8

27 Winners 32

9 Unforced Errors 22

2.2 Average Odds 1.6

August Holmgren vs Andrea Guerrieri — Prediction