ATP tennis predict — August Holmgren vs Aidan Mayo

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · R16

Predicted probability

August Holmgren

Denmark

56.30%

Aidan Mayo

USA

43.70%

Average Odds

1.46 / 2.57

Market probability

63.77% / 36.23%

Why This Prediction?

August Holmgren is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1643 vs 1550), a stronger serve (68.9% vs 61.2% of service points won) and fewer double faults per game (0.15 vs 0.21).

Player Comparison

1586.6 Elo 1554.6

1643.4 Elo (surface) 1549.8

89 Wins (Challenger) 81

73 Wins (surface) 68

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

1.148 Dominance ratio 1.051

192 Rank 674

28.2 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

August Holmgren

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Aidan Mayo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–6L · 45.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–3L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

30 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Aidan Mayo

1st Serve In %

64.2%

55.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.8%

71.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.4%

47.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

21.0%

28.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

41.3%

46.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.68

0.32

Double Faults per Service Game

0.26

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.1%

60.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

74.9%

71.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

57.3%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.3%

34.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.3%

54.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.50

0.60

Double Faults per Service Game

0.44

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

August Holmgren Aidan Mayo

Break Points Saved %

62.2%

61.8%

Break Points Converted %

22.5%

45.5%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

75.5%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

35.4%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

August Holmgren 0 – 0 Aidan Mayo

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-15

R16

August Holmgren #192

Aidan Mayo #674

7-6 6-2

4 Aces 7

4 Double Faults 5

60 Service Points 67

39 First Serve In 45

32 First Serve Won 33

15 Second Serve Won 10

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 6

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.5 Average Odds 2.6

August Holmgren vs Aidan Mayo — Prediction