ATP tennis predict — Arthur Weber vs Yuta Shimizu

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · SF 05:10

Predicted probability

Arthur Weber

France

22.70%

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

77.30%

Average Odds

2.32 / 1.56

Market probability

40.21% / 59.79%

Why This Prediction?

Yuta Shimizu is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1678 vs 1509), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1655 vs 1510) and a stronger serve (64.0% vs 56.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1509.4 Elo 1677.7

1510.0 Elo (surface) 1655.3

27 Wins (Challenger) 132

26 Wins (surface) 131

8 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 1

0.853 Dominance ratio 1.102

405 Rank 396

34.3 Age 27.3

left Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Weber

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Yuta Shimizu

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Yuta Shimizu

1st Serve In %

67.3%

63.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

66.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

50.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

26.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

45.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

59.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.8%

69.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.5%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

33.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.7%

54.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Yuta Shimizu

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

60.9%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

39.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

62.3%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Weber 0 – 1 Yuta Shimizu

Hard Phan Thiet 3 challenger · 2026-09-12

SF

Arthur Weber #405

Yuta Shimizu #396

6-4 6-4

6 Aces 2

2 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

27 First Serve Won 33

18 Second Serve Won 8

2 Break Points Saved 6

3 Break Points Faced 9

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Hard Nonthaburi 4 CH · 2024-09-24

Q2

Yuta Shimizu #255

Arthur Weber #668

6-2 1-6 6-3

4 Aces 0

0 Double Faults 4

71 Service Points 74

43 First Serve In 57

34 First Serve Won 39

12 Second Serve Won 7

0 Break Points Saved 1

2 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Weber vs Yuta Shimizu — Prediction