ATP tennis predict — Arthur Weber vs Koki Matsuda

Challenger Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 1. round 05:10

Predicted probability

Arthur Weber

France

41.29%

Koki Matsuda

Japan

58.71%

Average Odds

1.42 / 2.72

Market probability

65.70% / 34.30%

Why This Prediction?

Koki Matsuda is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (64.9% vs 56.5% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1573 vs 1534) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1570 vs 1536).

Player Comparison

1534.0 Elo 1573.3

1536.0 Elo (surface) 1569.7

28 Wins (Challenger) 24

27 Wins (surface) 24

8 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.853 Dominance ratio 1.056

384 Rank 467

34.4 Age 25.9

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Weber

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Koki Matsuda

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–2L · 71.4%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-07-19.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Koki Matsuda

1st Serve In %

67.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.23

—

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

66.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.8%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.5%

46.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

27.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.7%

53.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Koki Matsuda

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

—

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

—

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

68.2%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

26.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Weber 0 – 0 Koki Matsuda

Hard Phan Thiet 4 challenger · 2026-09-15

1. round

Arthur Weber #384

Koki Matsuda #467

6-1 6-2

2 Aces 6

0 Double Faults 3

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

17 First Serve Won 18

18 Second Serve Won 5

2 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 7

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.7

Arthur Weber vs Koki Matsuda — Prediction