ATP tennis predict — Arthur Weber vs Hayato Matsuoka

ATP Hard Hangzhou · qualification - round of 16 07:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Weber

France

25.67%

Hayato Matsuoka

Japan

74.33%

Average Odds

2.62 / 1.45

Market probability

35.63% / 64.37%

Why This Prediction?

Hayato Matsuoka is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1642 vs 1545), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1634 vs 1546) and fewer double faults per game (0.09 vs 0.22).

Player Comparison

1545.4 Elo 1641.8

1546.1 Elo (surface) 1633.7

2 Wins 0

2 Wins (surface) 0

2 Last 15 form 0

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.849 Dominance ratio 0.849

405 Rank 249

34.4 Age 21.7

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Weber

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Hayato Matsuoka

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–4L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–6L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–3L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Hayato Matsuoka

1st Serve In %

67.3%

—

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

—

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

—

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

—

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

—

Aces per Service Game

0.23

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

58.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.8%

69.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.5%

43.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

23.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.7%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Hayato Matsuoka

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

64.3%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

66.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

56.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

45.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Weber 0 – 0 Hayato Matsuoka

Hard Hangzhou · 2026-09-22

qualification - round of 16

Hayato Matsuoka #249

Arthur Weber #405

6-4 7-5

0 Aces 6

2 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

35 First Serve Won 30

12 Second Serve Won 11

7 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 2

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.4 Average Odds 2.6

Arthur Weber vs Hayato Matsuoka — Prediction