ATP tennis predict — Arthur Weber vs Florent Bax

Challenger Hard Istanbul challenger · 1. round

Predicted probability

Arthur Weber

France

32.79%

Florent Bax

France

67.21%

Average Odds

3.41 / 1.29

Market probability

27.45% / 72.55%

Why This Prediction?

Florent Bax is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (78.0% vs 57.9% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1493 vs 1464) and a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1516 vs 1507).

Player Comparison

1463.6 Elo 1492.8

1506.9 Elo (surface) 1515.8

24 Wins (Challenger) 37

23 Wins (surface) 23

5 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.823 Dominance ratio 1.043

398 Rank 247

34.2 Age 27.1

left Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Weber

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

9 matches with market odds since 2026-08-04.

Florent Bax

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–4L · 20.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-10.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Florent Bax

1st Serve In %

67.3%

74.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

65.3%

85.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.0%

57.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.5%

35.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.5%

41.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.23

1.00

Double Faults per Service Game

0.18

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

63.6%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

55.8%

69.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

40.5%

48.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.8%

23.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

35.7%

52.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.30

0.26

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Weber Florent Bax

Break Points Saved %

60.0%

100.0%

Break Points Converted %

37.8%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

53.9%

51.9%

Break Points Converted %

42.2%

27.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Weber 0 – 0 Florent Bax

Hard Istanbul challenger · 2026-08-04

1. round

Florent Bax #247

Arthur Weber #398

6-3 6-4

0 Aces 8

3 Double Faults 2

49 Service Points 59

30 First Serve In 37

20 First Serve Won 31

8 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.3 Average Odds 3.4

Arthur Weber vs Florent Bax — Prediction