ATP tennis predict — Arthur Rinderknech vs Frances Tiafoe

ATP Hard Montreal · 3. round 03:10

Predicted probability

Arthur Rinderknech

France

35.68%

Frances Tiafoe

USA

64.32%

Average Odds

2.64 / 1.48

Market probability

35.92% / 64.08%

Why This Prediction?

Frances Tiafoe is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1850 vs 1711), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1788 vs 1752) and more wins on hard courts (199 vs 86).

Player Comparison

1711.1 Elo 1850.3

1752.2 Elo (surface) 1787.8

150 Wins 291

86 Wins (surface) 199

8 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 1

1.114 Dominance ratio 0.995

29 Rank 20

31.0 Age 28.5

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Rinderknech

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Frances Tiafoe

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Rinderknech Frances Tiafoe

1st Serve In %

58.5%

52.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

72.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

48.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.75

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.27

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

62.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

73.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

51.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

31.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

47.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.40

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.16

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Rinderknech Frances Tiafoe

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

57.1%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

40.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.5%

70.6%

Break Points Converted %

28.8%

43.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Rinderknech 1 – 1 Frances Tiafoe

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-07

3. round

Arthur Rinderknech #29

Frances Tiafoe #20

6-2 2-0

0 Aces 5

2 Double Faults 1

50 Service Points 24

20 First Serve In 17

10 First Serve Won 16

14 Second Serve Won 4

9 Break Points Saved 0

12 Break Points Faced 0

8 Winners 18

13 Unforced Errors 15

2.6 Average Odds 1.5

Hard Australian Open · 2025-01-13

R128

Frances Tiafoe #16

Arthur Rinderknech #61

7-6(2) 6-3 4-6 6-7(4) 6-3

14 Aces 33

8 Double Faults 10

169 Service Points 161

98 First Serve In 94

77 First Serve Won 79

40 Second Serve Won 30

8 Break Points Saved 5

10 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Clay Lyon · 2024-05-20

R16

Arthur Rinderknech #73

Frances Tiafoe #26

7-6(7) 6-4

8 Aces 13

5 Double Faults 2

82 Service Points 88

43 First Serve In 49

37 First Serve Won 37

19 Second Serve Won 17

8 Break Points Saved 7

9 Break Points Faced 9