ATP tennis predict — Arthur Rinderknech vs Brandon Nakashima

ATP Hard Montreal · R16 20:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Rinderknech

France

32.06%

Brandon Nakashima

USA

67.94%

Average Odds

2.80 / 1.43

Market probability

33.81% / 66.19%

Why This Prediction?

Brandon Nakashima is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1824 vs 1726), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1805 vs 1767) and a stronger return game (36.8% vs 30.3% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1726.0 Elo 1823.8

1766.7 Elo (surface) 1805.4

151 Wins 175

87 Wins (surface) 118

8 Last 15 form 11

1 Head-to-head wins 1

0.958 Dominance ratio 1.233

29 Rank 31

31.0 Age 25.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Rinderknech

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

16 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Brandon Nakashima

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Rinderknech Brandon Nakashima

1st Serve In %

58.5%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

75.4%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.5%

52.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

22.7%

24.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.2%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.64

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.24

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

61.8%

66.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

78.6%

73.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

51.2%

54.6%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

25.0%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.9%

49.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.74

0.62

Double Faults per Service Game

0.19

0.14

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Rinderknech Brandon Nakashima

Break Points Saved %

59.3%

73.2%

Break Points Converted %

35.1%

37.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

73.5%

63.5%

Break Points Converted %

28.8%

46.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Rinderknech 1 – 1 Brandon Nakashima

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-08

R16

Brandon Nakashima #31

Arthur Rinderknech #29

7-6 5-7 7-5

17 Aces 16

6 Double Faults 2

114 Service Points 107

74 First Serve In 69

59 First Serve Won 51

17 Second Serve Won 21

6 Break Points Saved 2

9 Break Points Faced 5

47 Winners 36

42 Unforced Errors 27

1.4 Average Odds 2.8

Clay Lyon · 2023-05-22

R16

Brandon Nakashima #52

Arthur Rinderknech #78

7-6(6) 1-6 7-5

6 Aces 13

3 Double Faults 2

100 Service Points 105

62 First Serve In 64

44 First Serve Won 45

22 Second Serve Won 25

8 Break Points Saved 3

11 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Hard Istanbul 1 CH · 2021-01-17

R16

Arthur Rinderknech #178

Brandon Nakashima #170

6-7(7) 6-1 6-4

12 Aces 9

5 Double Faults 1

95 Service Points 82

64 First Serve In 51

51 First Serve Won 34

14 Second Serve Won 18

1 Break Points Saved 3

2 Break Points Faced 7