ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac

ATP Hard Beijing · qualification - quarterfinal 05:10

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

40.99%

Tomas Machac

Czech Republic

59.01%

Average Odds

1.65 / 2.18

Market probability

56.92% / 43.08%

Why This Prediction?

Tomas Machac is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (62.9% vs 61.0% of service points won), a higher Elo rating (1966 vs 1928) and fewer double faults per game (0.13 vs 0.18).

Player Comparison

1928.3 Elo 1965.6

1950.0 Elo (surface) 1905.4

23 Wins 127

19 Wins (surface) 92

12 Last 15 form 8

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.967 Dominance ratio 1.050

58 Rank 75

21.7 Age 26.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Tomas Machac

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

6 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Tomas Machac

1st Serve In %

52.6%

62.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

73.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.3%

50.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.7%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

51.7%

48.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.59

Double Faults per Service Game

0.34

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

63.6%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

74.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

65.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

31.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

56.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.18

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Tomas Machac

Break Points Saved %

63.2%

59.6%

Break Points Converted %

41.6%

36.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

73.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

47.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 1 – 0 Tomas Machac

Hard Montpellier · 2026-02-02

R16

Arthur Gea #168

Tomas Machac #28

6-3 4-5 RET

6 Aces 4

1 Double Faults 1

46 Service Points 61

26 First Serve In 32

24 First Serve Won 24

12 Second Serve Won 15

0 Break Points Saved 4

0 Break Points Faced 5

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Gea vs Tomas Machac — Prediction