ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal

Grand Slam Hard US Open · qualification - 1. round 18:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

73.49%

Sumit Nagal

India

26.51%

Average Odds

1.15 / 5.13

Market probability

81.69% / 18.31%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1787 vs 1574), a higher Elo rating (1759 vs 1690) and a stronger serve (60.6% vs 57.3% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1758.6 Elo 1690.2

1787.4 Elo (surface) 1574.4

17 Wins 48

13 Wins (surface) 23

10 Last 15 form 6

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.952 Dominance ratio 0.860

86 Rank 234

21.6 Age 29.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Sumit Nagal

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–4L · 50.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 6W–2L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Sumit Nagal

1st Serve In %

54.6%

67.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

61.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

46.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

28.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

38.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.17

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

65.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

63.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

44.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

35.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

42.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.24

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Sumit Nagal

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

52.3%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

18.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

58.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

34.4%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Sumit Nagal

Hard US Open · 2026-08-25

qualification - 1. round

Arthur Gea #86

Sumit Nagal #234

6-3 7-6

6 Aces 1

3 Double Faults 2

81 Service Points 65

43 First Serve In 39

34 First Serve Won 28

22 Second Serve Won 14

8 Break Points Saved 0

9 Break Points Faced 2

23 Winners 12

28 Unforced Errors 27

1.1 Average Odds 5.1

Arthur Gea vs Sumit Nagal — Prediction