ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Keegan Rice

Challenger Hard Granby challenger · R16

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

73.99%

Keegan Rice

Canada

26.01%

Average Odds

1.16 / 4.74

Market probability

80.34% / 19.66%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1640 vs 1466), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1626 vs 1470) and more career match wins (64 vs 4).

Player Comparison

1640.1 Elo 1466.0

1626.2 Elo (surface) 1470.4

64 Wins (Challenger) 4

18 Wins (surface) 4

10 Last 15 form 4

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.988 Dominance ratio 0.896

137 Rank 1262

21.5 Age 20.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Keegan Rice

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

8 matches with market odds since 2026-07-14.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Keegan Rice

1st Serve In %

54.6%

64.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

81.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

38.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

7.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

42.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.44

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.11

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

62.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

63.5%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

49.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

35.5%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

50.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.34

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.33

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Keegan Rice

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

0.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

46.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Keegan Rice

Hard Granby challenger · 2026-07-17

R16

Arthur Gea #137

Keegan Rice #1262

6-4 6-2

1 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 50

34 First Serve In 34

15 First Serve Won 24

8 Second Serve Won 8

4 Break Points Saved 1

10 Break Points Faced 4

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

1.2 Average Odds 4.7

Arthur Gea vs Keegan Rice — Prediction