ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik

ATP Hard Shanghai · R16 07:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

43.60%

Jakub Mensik

Czech Republic

56.40%

Average Odds

2.48 / 1.53

Market probability

38.15% / 61.85%

Why This Prediction?

Jakub Mensik is the favorite because he has a stronger serve (65.0% vs 61.0% of service points won), more wins on hard courts (83 vs 24) and more aces per game (0.36 vs 0.16).

Player Comparison

1997.9 Elo 2049.4

2019.2 Elo (surface) 1997.4

28 Wins 110

24 Wins (surface) 83

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.967 Dominance ratio 1.043

56 Rank 15

21.8 Age 21.1

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jakub Mensik

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–6L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 1W–2L · 33.3%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

26 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Jakub Mensik

1st Serve In %

52.0%

60.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.3%

71.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

46.1%

55.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.6%

21.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.2%

55.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.46

0.53

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.22

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

57.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

74.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

54.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

32.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.28

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Jakub Mensik

Break Points Saved %

53.1%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

41.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

54.7%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea and Jakub Mensik have never played each other.

Arthur Gea vs Jakub Mensik — Prediction