ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria

ATP Hard Shanghai · 1. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

49.88%

Jaime Faria

Portugal

50.12%

Average Odds

1.53 / 2.44

Market probability

61.46% / 38.54%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1942.4 Elo 1931.3

1954.3 Elo (surface) 1824.4

25 Wins 49

21 Wins (surface) 19

12 Last 15 form 9

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.967 Dominance ratio 1.200

56 Rank 60

21.8 Age 23.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

25 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Jaime Faria

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–3L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–5L · 16.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–2L · 33.3%

28 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Jaime Faria

1st Serve In %

51.4%

59.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

67.7%

73.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

49.3%

56.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

30.2%

30.4%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.2%

58.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.41

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.30

0.37

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

57.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

76.3%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

52.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

34.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

55.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.36

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Jaime Faria

Break Points Saved %

55.9%

53.6%

Break Points Converted %

38.1%

41.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

55.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

44.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea and Jaime Faria have never played each other.

Arthur Gea vs Jaime Faria — Prediction