ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Francisco Cerundolo

ATP Hard Los Cabos · QF

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

31.69%

Francisco Cerundolo

Argentina

68.31%

Average Odds

2.52 / 1.51

Market probability

37.47% / 62.53%

Why This Prediction?

Francisco Cerundolo is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1908 vs 1704), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1779 vs 1715) and fewer double faults per game (0.08 vs 0.21).

Player Comparison

1704.2 Elo 1908.1

1715.5 Elo (surface) 1778.7

14 Wins 187

10 Wins (surface) 65

9 Last 15 form 11

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 0.913

127 Rank 20

21.6 Age 28.0

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Francisco Cerundolo

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–2L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

15 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Francisco Cerundolo

1st Serve In %

54.6%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

70.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

48.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

25.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

51.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.37

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.34

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

69.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

67.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

54.0%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

50.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.15

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.26

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Francisco Cerundolo

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

65.2%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

34.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

66.7%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

47.0%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Francisco Cerundolo

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-07-31

QF

Arthur Gea #127

Francisco Cerundolo #20

6-7 6-4 6-0

4 Aces 2

0 Double Faults 6

102 Service Points 104

76 First Serve In 55

47 First Serve Won 43

14 Second Serve Won 29

3 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 5

27 Winners 18

73 Unforced Errors 52

2.5 Average Odds 1.5

Arthur Gea vs Francisco Cerundolo — Prediction