ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Denis Shapovalov

ATP Hard Los Cabos · F

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

56.04%

Denis Shapovalov

Canada

43.96%

Average Odds

2.29 / 1.61

Market probability

41.28% / 58.72%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has fewer double faults per game (0.19 vs 0.29) and a stronger return game (37.1% vs 36.5% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1741.6 Elo 1756.5

1763.8 Elo (surface) 1762.2

16 Wins 259

12 Wins (surface) 195

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.912 Dominance ratio 0.907

127 Rank 68

21.6 Age 27.3

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Denis Shapovalov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–3L · 66.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Denis Shapovalov

1st Serve In %

54.6%

56.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

71.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

48.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

31.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

48.4%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.36

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.45

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

55.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

58.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

31.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.50

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.42

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Denis Shapovalov

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

59.8%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

44.4%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

59.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

43.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Denis Shapovalov

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-08-02

F

Arthur Gea #127

Denis Shapovalov #68

6-3 6-4

1 Aces 2

4 Double Faults 9

67 Service Points 52

38 First Serve In 31

28 First Serve Won 23

16 Second Serve Won 9

6 Break Points Saved 4

7 Break Points Faced 7

12 Winners 13

25 Unforced Errors 37

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Arthur Gea vs Denis Shapovalov — Prediction