ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Coleman Wong

ATP Hard Los Cabos · SF

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

55.61%

Coleman Wong

Hong Kong

44.39%

Average Odds

1.74 / 2.06

Market probability

54.21% / 45.79%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (1729 vs 1642), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1744 vs 1688) and a stronger return game (36.6% vs 33.0% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1729.3 Elo 1642.2

1743.8 Elo (surface) 1687.8

15 Wins 42

11 Wins (surface) 41

9 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.898 Dominance ratio 1.051

127 Rank 108

21.6 Age 22.2

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Coleman Wong

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–5L · 54.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

24 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Coleman Wong

1st Serve In %

54.6%

53.9%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

77.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

59.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

30.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

52.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.70

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.30

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

59.0%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

76.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

50.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

23.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

49.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.73

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Coleman Wong

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

75.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

36.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

52.5%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

38.6%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Coleman Wong

Hard Los Cabos · 2026-08-01

SF

Arthur Gea #127

Coleman Wong #108

7-6 6-3

7 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 5

70 Service Points 74

43 First Serve In 39

29 First Serve Won 28

13 Second Serve Won 21

4 Break Points Saved 4

8 Break Points Faced 6

25 Winners 20

41 Unforced Errors 29

1.7 Average Odds 2.1

Arthur Gea vs Coleman Wong — Prediction