ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Botic Van De Zandschulp

Grand Slam Hard US Open · R16 22:30

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

62.74%

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Netherlands

37.26%

Average Odds

2.33 / 1.60

Market probability

40.71% / 59.29%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Gea is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1828 vs 1747), a higher Elo rating (1818 vs 1799) and fewer double faults per game (0.16 vs 0.20).

Player Comparison

1818.1 Elo 1798.9

1828.2 Elo (surface) 1746.6

22 Wins 175

18 Wins (surface) 118

12 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.984 Dominance ratio 1.135

87 Rank 70

21.7 Age 30.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 6W–1L · 85.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Botic Van De Zandschulp

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–4L · 42.9%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–2L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Botic Van De Zandschulp

1st Serve In %

54.6%

58.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

68.2%

74.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.5%

44.1%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

29.0%

29.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

50.5%

54.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.40

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.41

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

60.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

71.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

45.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

38.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

59.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.52

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.40

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Botic Van De Zandschulp

Break Points Saved %

62.4%

62.0%

Break Points Converted %

41.3%

48.6%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

50.0%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

45.1%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea 0 – 0 Botic Van De Zandschulp

Hard US Open · 2026-09-07

R16

Botic Van De Zandschulp #70

Arthur Gea #87

3-6 6-7 7-6 7-6 6-4

10 Aces 15

12 Double Faults 9

210 Service Points 199

126 First Serve In 114

84 First Serve Won 80

40 Second Serve Won 35

14 Break Points Saved 9

21 Break Points Faced 16

43 Winners 61

58 Unforced Errors 87

1.6 Average Odds 2.3

Arthur Gea vs Botic Van De Zandschulp — Prediction