ATP tennis predict — Arthur Gea vs Ben Shelton

ATP Hard Shanghai · 3. round 06:10

Predicted probability

Arthur Gea

France

23.16%

Ben Shelton

USA

76.84%

Average Odds

3.23 / 1.34

Market probability

29.32% / 70.68%

Why This Prediction?

Ben Shelton is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2137 vs 1989), a higher Elo rating (2173 vs 1974) and a stronger serve (65.7% vs 61.0% of service points won).

Player Comparison

1973.9 Elo 2173.4

1988.5 Elo (surface) 2137.5

27 Wins 152

23 Wins (surface) 108

12 Last 15 form 13

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.967 Dominance ratio 0.939

56 Rank 4

21.8 Age 24.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Gea

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–1L · 88.9%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

27 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Ben Shelton

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 11W–1L · 91.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Ben Shelton

1st Serve In %

51.5%

67.4%

1st Serve Points Won %

66.5%

77.2%

2nd Serve Points Won %

47.6%

57.5%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

28.1%

27.1%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

53.8%

50.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.49

Double Faults per Service Game

0.25

0.21

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

59.6%

60.7%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.8%

75.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

44.6%

56.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

27.1%

33.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

48.9%

47.2%

Aces per Service Game

0.33

0.64

Double Faults per Service Game

0.31

0.32

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Gea Ben Shelton

Break Points Saved %

50.6%

66.2%

Break Points Converted %

40.7%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

45.3%

74.1%

Break Points Converted %

36.2%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Gea and Ben Shelton have never played each other.

Arthur Gea vs Ben Shelton — Prediction