ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Thiago Agustin Tirante

ATP Hard Cincinnati · QF 02:40

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

60.96%

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Argentina

39.04%

Average Odds

1.28 / 3.68

Market probability

74.19% / 25.81%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating on hard courts (1876 vs 1747), a higher Elo rating (1882 vs 1800) and a stronger return game (39.7% vs 33.2% of return points won).

Player Comparison

1882.2 Elo 1799.9

1876.2 Elo (surface) 1747.2

126 Wins 67

73 Wins (surface) 30

11 Last 15 form 10

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.863 Dominance ratio 0.997

21 Rank 50

22.2 Age 25.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Thiago Agustin Tirante

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 7W–2L · 77.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 2W–1L · 66.7%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 2W–4L · 33.3%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–0L · 100.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-05-24.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Thiago Agustin Tirante

1st Serve In %

61.5%

55.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

76.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

57.3%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

25.3%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

49.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.55

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.20

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

56.8%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

74.6%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

53.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

28.2%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

47.3%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.68

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.15

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Thiago Agustin Tirante

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

69.4%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

36.2%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

54.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

41.5%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 0 – 0 Thiago Agustin Tirante

Hard Cincinnati · 2026-08-21

QF

Arthur Fils #21

Thiago Agustin Tirante #50

6-3 6-2

6 Aces 3

1 Double Faults 0

48 Service Points 47

22 First Serve In 29

15 First Serve Won 24

11 Second Serve Won 13

2 Break Points Saved 0

5 Break Points Faced 0

11 Winners 14

22 Unforced Errors 18

1.3 Average Odds 3.7

Arthur Fils vs Thiago Agustin Tirante — Prediction