ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar

ATP Hard Washington · 1. round

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

52.69%

Rafael Jodar

Spain

47.31%

Average Odds

1.62 / 2.27

Market probability

58.35% / 41.65%

Why This Prediction?

This is a very close match — there is no significant statistical edge for either player.

Player Comparison

1838.8 Elo 1837.2

1852.9 Elo (surface) 1648.8

120 Wins 35

67 Wins (surface) 14

12 Last 15 form 12

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.871 Dominance ratio 1.055

22 Rank 24

22.1 Age 19.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Rafael Jodar

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 7W–1L · 87.5%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 8W–3L · 72.7%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

22 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Rafael Jodar

1st Serve In %

61.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

70.9%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

53.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

32.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

50.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.28

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

59.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

74.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

56.8%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

37.6%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

57.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.45

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Rafael Jodar

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

58.0%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

41.9%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

77.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

45.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 1 – 0 Rafael Jodar

Hard Montreal · 2026-08-11

QF

Rafael Jodar #15

Arthur Fils #24

7-6 6-3

3 Aces 7

1 Double Faults 1

76 Service Points 76

51 First Serve In 44

37 First Serve Won 29

11 Second Serve Won 16

2 Break Points Saved 8

4 Break Points Faced 12

20 Winners 18

34 Unforced Errors 28

1.6 Average Odds 2.2

Hard Washington · 2026-07-28

1. round

Rafael Jodar #24

Arthur Fils #22

7-6 6-3

6 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 3

81 Service Points 73

52 First Serve In 35

38 First Serve Won 26

13 Second Serve Won 24

7 Break Points Saved 4

10 Break Points Faced 5

25 Winners 19

34 Unforced Errors 27

2.3 Average Odds 1.6

Clay Barcelona · 2026-04-13

SF

Arthur Fils #30

Rafael Jodar #55

3-6 6-3 6-2

1 Aces 2

3 Double Faults 3

82 Service Points 82

46 First Serve In 49

37 First Serve Won 33

19 Second Serve Won 18

6 Break Points Saved 10

7 Break Points Faced 13

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Fils vs Rafael Jodar — Prediction