ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov

ATP Hard Shanghai · 2. round 04:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

81.82%

Pavel Kotov

Russia

18.18%

Average Odds

1.09 / 7.34

Market probability

87.07% / 12.93%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2174 vs 1801), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2087 vs 1831) and a stronger serve (63.0% vs 61.5% of service points won).

Player Comparison

2174.3 Elo 1800.5

2086.9 Elo (surface) 1831.3

133 Wins 85

80 Wins (surface) 53

12 Last 15 form 7

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 0.878

10 Rank 187

22.3 Age 27.9

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–2L · 66.7%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 10W–2L · 83.3%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

19 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Pavel Kotov

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 4W–3L · 57.1%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–1L · 75.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

18 matches with market odds since 2026-05-26.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Pavel Kotov

1st Serve In %

60.5%

65.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

70.1%

64.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

56.5%

47.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.7%

27.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

49.7%

45.0%

Aces per Service Game

0.63

0.61

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

71.2%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

83.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

66.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

20.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

51.6%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.67

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.17

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Pavel Kotov

Break Points Saved %

58.3%

51.6%

Break Points Converted %

42.9%

32.8%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

74.0%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

41.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 1 – 0 Pavel Kotov

Hard Shanghai Masters · 2023-10-02

R128

Arthur Fils #44

Pavel Kotov #103

6-1 6-4

5 Aces 3

5 Double Faults 1

55 Service Points 53

32 First Serve In 38

26 First Serve Won 19

10 Second Serve Won 9

0 Break Points Saved 6

1 Break Points Faced 10

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Fils vs Pavel Kotov — Prediction