ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm

ATP Hard Tokyo · qualification - round of 16 05:55

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

74.69%

Martin Damm

USA

25.31%

Average Odds

1.18 / 4.71

Market probability

79.97% / 20.03%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2171 vs 1860), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2079 vs 1781) and more wins on hard courts (76 vs 23).

Player Comparison

2170.8 Elo 1860.4

2079.1 Elo (surface) 1780.8

129 Wins 32

76 Wins (surface) 23

10 Last 15 form 7

0 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 1.206

9 Rank 103

22.3 Age 23.0

right Hand left

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 1W–1L · 50.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

14 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Martin Damm

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 5W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 5W–3L · 62.5%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–2L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 1W–3L · 25.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

20 matches with market odds since 2026-05-31.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Martin Damm

1st Serve In %

61.5%

56.5%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.1%

77.4%

2nd Serve Points Won %

53.0%

57.7%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.3%

24.9%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

47.9%

51.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.51

0.84

Double Faults per Service Game

0.22

0.25

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

61.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

79.1%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

52.4%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

24.0%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

48.7%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.86

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.31

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Martin Damm

Break Points Saved %

58.2%

68.8%

Break Points Converted %

34.0%

46.3%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

58.5%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

37.8%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils and Martin Damm have never played each other.

Arthur Fils vs Martin Damm — Prediction