ATP tennis predict — Arthur Fils vs Luca Van Assche

ATP Hard Tokyo · 1. round 09:00

Predicted probability

Arthur Fils

France

81.14%

Luca Van Assche

France

18.86%

Average Odds

1.13 / 5.72

Market probability

83.50% / 16.50%

Why This Prediction?

Arthur Fils is the favorite because he has a higher Elo rating (2179 vs 1924), a higher Elo rating on hard courts (2090 vs 1869) and a better head-to-head record against Luca Van Assche (1-0).

Player Comparison

2179.2 Elo 1924.4

2089.9 Elo (surface) 1869.2

131 Wins 59

78 Wins (surface) 32

11 Last 15 form 9

1 Head-to-head wins 0

0.883 Dominance ratio 1.069

9 Rank 43

22.3 Age 22.4

right Hand right

Performance vs. the Odds

Career record grouped by how big a favorite the market made each player, based on their average odds.

Arthur Fils

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 4W–1L · 80.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–2L · 81.8%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–0L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 0W–1L · 0.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 0W–0L · 0.0%

17 matches with market odds since 2026-06-30.

Luca Van Assche

Heavy favorite (odds below 1.30) 2W–0L · 100.0%

Favorite (odds 1.30-1.80) 9W–1L · 90.0%

Even match (odds 1.80-2.20) 0W–4L · 0.0%

Underdog (odds 2.20-4.00) 3W–2L · 60.0%

Heavy underdog (odds above 4.00) 1W–1L · 50.0%

23 matches with market odds since 2026-05-25.

Serve & Return

Serve and return win rates from each player's last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Luca Van Assche

1st Serve In %

60.4%

60.3%

1st Serve Points Won %

69.7%

69.8%

2nd Serve Points Won %

52.8%

52.2%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

23.6%

31.7%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

46.6%

52.5%

Aces per Service Game

0.62

0.38

Double Faults per Service Game

0.23

0.38

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

1st Serve In %

55.6%

55.1%

1st Serve Points Won %

72.2%

63.0%

2nd Serve Points Won %

50.7%

42.9%

Return Points Won vs 1st Serve %

31.4%

31.8%

Return Points Won vs 2nd Serve %

52.6%

48.8%

Aces per Service Game

0.42

0.25

Double Faults per Service Game

0.37

0.29

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Break Point Performance

How each player handles the biggest points - break points saved serving, and converted returning - from their last 10 matches at the selected level.

Arthur Fils Luca Van Assche

Break Points Saved %

53.8%

46.7%

Break Points Converted %

41.4%

44.0%

Based on each player's last 10 ATP/Grand Slam matches.

Break Points Saved %

57.1%

48.8%

Break Points Converted %

47.3%

33.3%

Based on each player's last 10 Challenger matches.

Head-to-Head

Arthur Fils 1 – 0 Luca Van Assche

Hard Tokyo · 2026-09-30

1. round

Arthur Fils #9

Luca Van Assche #43

6-3 6-2

12 Aces 4

3 Double Faults 1

- Service Points -

- First Serve In -

34 First Serve Won 23

13 Second Serve Won 10

3 Break Points Saved 7

3 Break Points Faced 10

34 Winners 13

25 Unforced Errors 15

1.1 Average Odds 5.7

Hard NextGen Finals · 2023-11-27

SF

Arthur Fils #36

Luca Van Assche #70

2-4 4-1 4-3(1) 4-3(6)

9 Aces 6

4 Double Faults 1

70 Service Points 65

45 First Serve In 43

39 First Serve Won 32

14 Second Serve Won 14

2 Break Points Saved 2

3 Break Points Faced 3

- Winners -

- Unforced Errors -

- Average Odds -

Arthur Fils vs Luca Van Assche — Prediction